Regime Change 2008

I might be inclined to suggest that March Madness was created for people either too stupid or too impatient to draw up political brackets.

I might decline to make that statement since no race has shaped up this way ever. No incumbent in a time where choices aren’t made at conventions in Smokey backrooms by political insiders, when the internet (the greatest tool of democracy thus far) allows no-name grass-root’ers to come from the foggy backwoods of every 3 electorate state you can think of, there has never been a better time to make broad political statements based on foolish logic and amateur political observation than now. At least in basketball you can choose the teams with the colors you like. I keep getting a blue suit with a red striped tie (for those out of the know, supposedly a red striped tie is the most powerful looking option there is).

So we’re just 3 days away from Iowa, and if I’m not mistaken 8 from New Hampshire. (and I guess 5 from WY if you’re a repub) and all the early leads that were inflated because only the junkies were watching have since evaporated. It’s a blood bath folks, and heres a break down on how 7 people will have the American dream crushed in their egotistical face.

Iowa – Their backwoods and they love’s them some jesus. Romeny, who dumped about 17 trillion dollars into winning that state is now losing to a man who doesn’t have enough van drives to allow the press into his motorcade. Huckabee has this place on lock down, he thinks earth is 6000 years old, he says we need to “hear the alarm clock and take this country back for Christ” and his foreign policy consists of bitching about how those countries citizens want to come here because we’re not a dictatorship. How could ya not vote for him?

Romney’s got second, and that’s mildly refreshing. Not because I hate romeny, I just like that when you pay as much as he is, you still only end up in second place (at least I’m predicting). And talk about gift horse in the mouth, I don’t have any facts in front of me but lord, The Romney Campaign must have tripled Iowa’s revenue single handedly.

On the other side, Clinton has no shot in the backwoods of a red state. Obama is the next door neighbor and Edwards has been campaigning there since 2004. This will be the only time one of those two men aren’t completely bashing the illusion of the Clinton incumbency. I predict an absolute shutdown from there on out.

Repub Dems
Huckabee Obama
Romeny Edwards
McCain. Clinton

New Hampshire – The first primary holds the most powerful pixie dust a politician could hope for. As well it should, the next time someone complains about NH being so small and determining that much do me a favor; Find a state that you’d like to determine more of the momentum and compare their voting records. New Hampshire takes pride in their position, they research their candidates and their about as objective as it gets. They vote for people they think are good, not the ones they hate the least from the headlines.

The republican race here is tricky business. McCain ought to win, but so should Romney. In 2000 NH selected McCain, and Romeny just finished up a…charming tenure in neighboring MA which, for whatever reason I can’t figure out, means he should do well. Why proximity matters is mind blowing but whatever. Hey, heres something we havn’t seen since the S.A.T.’s:

Iowa : Huckabee :: New Hampshire : Ron Paul.

For republicans, and junkies of all stripes, the greatest part of this race is seeing how well these dark horses run. The come from behind conservative forces are squaring off with the salt of the earth republicans, and we’ll see how well democracy works. You have two people who’s beliefs can truly be championed, and then you have 2 or 3 that can actually beat Hillary Clinton. Or so they think. I’m fairly certain she’ll be lucky to pull half of Super Tuesday and little more. Voting to beat an opposing party’s member works wonders by the way. Ask John Kerry.

But back to the topic at hand, Ron Paul is set to complete screw one of the leading candidates. If there was any state who was about to announce themselves a Yellow state (I picked a random color) and declare their allegiance to the Libertarian party, New Hampshire is the first, second and third on the list. It’s a long shot that he’ll win. He should, but he’s running in a year where folks are looking to beat a candidate that won’t win.

I’d like McCain to win so I’m a tad bit bias, but since he and Paul occupy they same territory; the non-religious small government republicans, well that’s only good things for Romney…shit.

Back to blue, the residents of Manch Vegas and their ilk are going to be more prone to Union backing. When one of the major papers is called The Union Leader it tends to be that way. This boads well for Edwards, it can’t not, but as Union as they are (and this is why NH will blow your mind) their anti-federalists and Edwards big government driven campaign isn’t going to fly well in the Granite fortress. As Romney picks up a win from the battling Paul and McCain, so too will Obama who stands to be the least Big Government of the traditionally federalized Dems.

Repubs Dems
Romney Obama
McCain Edwards
Paul Clinton


And finally Michigan, land of Michal Moore, The Big 3, Eminem, Kid Rock, The White Stripes, Bob Segar, The MC5 and the largest amount of unemployed factory workers on the planet…or at least it seems that way from the speeches given there. Also it has Detroit, murder capital of the United States.

Michigan has been one hot button issue this year attempting to dethrone New Hampshire as lead primary, and being the battleground on which all candidates were tested. Only Clinton choose to campaign there heavily due to a flawed mid-summer arrogant whiff of victory, leaving her heavily in the favor of the states primary voters. Those in the state felt they should more prominently represent the country over NH and because of this the state will go to all sorts of people. Theres no use trying to plug for the Dems here it looks relatively strait forward as this one was a battle of who won the temper tantrum.

On the republican side its headlines or bust. If Giuliani hasn’t been dismantled at this point, expect him to show strong. Michigan is about as North as it gets, so the religious freak jobs won’t show well here save for Romney who has political roots in the state. If its not Jeb in Florida for George, its George in Michigan for Mitt.

Repubs Dems
Romney Clinton
McCain Edwards
Giuliani Obama

South Carolina is a cess pool of human waste. Its political process is a twisting mire of political connectness [sic] and what happens here is whoever has kowtowed to the most GOP desires. Or if you’re one of the 5 democrats there, whoever bashes the GOP the most. Why didn’t we let them succeed? Giuliani takes this one because he doesn’t have any black babies. Sorry John, that’s what being a nice guy gets you.

Repubs Dems
Giuliani Clinton
Huckabee Obama
Romney Edwards


Right or wrong, those are my picks.