The New York Times reports today that Rudy Guiliani is considering a strong run for the Governorship of New York State, and while Cathy's probably going to kick me in the mouth for saying so, I couldn't be more thrilled.
One of the more fun things about getting good at the political game is seeing how things in the background are being set-up to shape the future 5 to 10 years on. And while most of the pundits are crowing about an increasingly neo-con right wing, they’re only focusing on the Legislature. Its true there aren’t many republicans left in the Upper Right states, but with the moderation of national Republican figures the GOP is poised for a nationwide rebirth 5 to 10 years down the line. That is to say, if the Republican’s get obliterated in 2012 like they are on course to, the party will fall to Charlie Christ, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and, if he wins, Rudy Giuliani.
Say what you will about his hard stance on foreign policy and his alignment with the Hawks – that’s never stopped a young voter from choosing the GOP. Most people can understand through the lens of history that war is ugly, but certainly necessary at times. Despite what lasting image the 60’s peace movement has left, the ugly specter of Hitler casts a longer shadow and Giuliani won’t be penalized for a war he thought was needed. No, Rudy will take rank on two things that happened well before 9/11 – his stance on crime, and his stance on homosexuals.
The one thing the legislators can’t really do in the House of Congress is be results based. The New York City crime rate, according to the most consistent statistic, dropped a mythic 69% under the Giuliani Administration at a time when it (the city) was considered ungovernable. This is, in modern political trade, on par with the feats of Hercules in that its one of the few times a politician actually fulfilled the good-time promises of the euphoria of campaign season. For those not fortunate enough to be in the Upper Right, NYC – where Giuliani was elected twice – is the most Liberal portion of the state. If not for Manhattan, New York might be a swing state. And given the Democrats recently…”follies” its not very hard to see how Rudy might start taking on some Rudy qualities.
But some of you may be thinking, “Hey, Brow, I don’t live in NY. Who cares?” Fair point, but Giuliani’s win, should it come, would mean while the numbers in the Congress dwindle, the parties standing within the country starts to improve. And nowhere is this more important than outside of the Bible Belt where over the course of the last few years the GOP has been taking a beating, dropping long held Republican bastions to the Democratic Party. In the 90’s it was California, this decade it seems to be Florida.
In case that sounds crazy to you, and for someone like me who was born in 1982, it should. Lets take a look at California, long considered “Liberal Land” by many of the far rights biggest voices. Prior to Clinton, the GOP lost California in 1964 only when the social climate and a weak opponent (Goldwater) allowed LBJ to carry something like 42 of the 50 states. Its hard to say which state gave in quickest. California stuck with Ford when Florida voted Carter. Florida stuck with Bush, when CA finally went a permanent shade of blue. Either way – it’s a certainty they’ve been Republican Strong holds. But in the 2000 election, Florida faltered and the election results still aren’t agreed upon by the ideological extreme wings. 2004’s results we’re likely a result of the last being uncertain, but in 2008 Florida went, and given its demographic its tough to say if it won’t revert. If its going to, the question is: Who in the GOP is going to take it? As of right now, that seems to be directed at the GOP, as in who amongst you will take up the gauntlet?
But don’t be surprised if the Democrats have their flanks turned on them. While the whole country is waiting for the results of the Palin/Romney death match, with a possible Jindal or Pawlenty emerging from that ruckus as the Dark Horse candidate. But if Giuliani takes the Governorship up in New York, Florida may be taken by a future Republican Party of a more Moderate flavor. In short – Eisenhower, not Reagan, may be the key to a continued dominance of the Sunshine State.
Lets look ahead at some of the math, as it stands now. Depending on the health care debate, the 2010 elections could go either way, but as is customary in the mid-terms, the Republicans will probably pick up some seats. By the time 2012 comes, the economy will be the biggest factor. If it improves Obama will walk in, if it fails he’s got no shot. Its really that simple. Regardless of what major factor is taking place there, that’s going to be the issue at hand. Jobs, which are the largest lagging indicator, will be in full swing then and that’s going to be the most enduring test of the President.
Given the current climate of the GOP right now, the thought that McCain lost because he wasn’t conservative enough still has a firm grip on the party. Malkin and Coulter haven’t made room for Steve Schmidt and Megan McCain at this point, so the voices are still rallying to the right. Hannity and Beck have formed an impressive tag team that’s likely going to keep the party on course, but if it fails (and it likely will) we’re going to awake in 2012 in a world completely different than we know now.
The democrats, having won enough to warrant it, will drift leftward, leaving a middle open for courting. If the blue states start presenting high-profile republicans, that are in positions to be results based (and generally do, when the opposite faction controls the Executive they often can only work.) you’re likely going to see the moderation return to the Senate.
I don’t know if the moderation scares or entices you, but the writings on the wall. The one thing this country cannot afford is a lack of options. To have the Republican Party represent mostly southern white voters is not an option.
As a finisher I’ll say this, I didn’t include it in my general math because it could be a whole lot of nothing, but recently it was said that the third biggest city in America is about ready to switch from Chicago to Houston. The presence of a major city in one of America’s most conservative states may prove to be pretty interesting 20 years on. With Austin already a liberal enclave, if Houston slowly turns as many cities do. You may see a strong Democratic presence emerge from Texas in time for the 2032 elections.
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